Bipartisan-ness of United States presidential impeachment verdicts

Yesterday the United States Senate voted on whether to convict former President Donald Trump of the impeachment charge brought against him by the House.

I have heard two claims being made about this verdict:

  • This is the “most bipartisan” impeachment in US history
  • This impeachment “brought the most guilty votes” in US history

There have been four impeachment verdicts against United States Presidents by the United States Senate. Here’s the data:

  • Andrew Johnson, 1868
    • Verdict: not guilty on all counts
    • 54 Senators
      • 45 Republican
      • 9 Democratic
    • Vote: 35 guilty, 19 not guilty
      • Guilty: 35 Republican
      • Not guilty: 10 Republican, 9 Democratic
  • Bill Clinton, 1999
    • Verdict: not guilty on all counts
    • 100 Senators
      • 55 Republican
      • 45 Democratic
    • On the “perjury” count
      • 45 guilty, 55 not guilty
        • Guilty: 45 Republican
        • Not guilty: 45 Democratic, 10 Republican
    • On the “obstruction of justice” count
      • 50 guilty, 50 not guilty
        • Guilty: 50 Republican
        • Not guilty: 45 Democratic, 5 Republican
  • Donald Trump, 2020
    • Verdict: not guilty on all counts
    • 100 Senators
      • 53 Republican
      • 45 Democratic
      • 2 Independent
    • On the “abuse of power” count
      • 48 guilty, 52 not guilty
        • Guilty: 45 Democratic, 1 Republican, 2 Independent
        • Not guilty: 52 Republican
    • On the “obstruction of justice” count
      • 47 guilty, 53 not guilty
        • Guilty: 45 Democratic, 2 Independent
        • Not guilty: 53 Republican
  • Donald Trump, 2021
    • Verdict: not guilty (on the sole count)
    • 100 Senators
      • 50 Democratic
      • 50 Republican
    • 57 guilty, 43 not guilty
      • Guilty: 50 Democratic, 7 Republican
      • Not guilty: 43 Republican

The “most bipartisan” claim is mostly true though it ignores the role of the two Independent Senators in Donald Trump’s 2020 impeachment verdict.

The “most guilty votes” claim is misleading. Yes, it is technically true that Donald Trump 2021’s 57 guilty votes is more by count than Andrew Johson 1868’s 35 guilty votes – but as a percentage Andrew Johnson’s 65% guilty is higher than Donald Trump 2021’s 57% guilty.

So Andrew Johnson still has the honor of being the President who came closest to being convicted by the Senate.

Why did Trump lose?

It is now reasonably clear that Donald Trump has lost his bid for re-election as President of the United States.

Trump says he lost because Biden cheated. If that’s true, we should try to find out how, so we can make sure it doesn’t happen again.

But if it isn’t true – if the election fairly represented the will of the people – there must be another explanation for why Trump lost.

What is it?

In 1948, economist Duncan Black published an article On the Rationale of Group Decision-Making in the Journal of Political Economy.

The TL:DR is “a majority rule voting system will select the outcome most preferred by the median voter” – this is called the median voter theorem.

So how did Trump lose the median voter?

Trump is a bit to the right of center. Clinton was a bit to the left of center. So their election was a bit of a tossup.

Biden is ABSOLUTELY SMACK DAB IN THE MIDDLE OF THE CENTER. Like, if you look up “center” in the dictionary, there’s just a picture of Biden.

So the surprising thing to me is not that Biden won the general election. The surprising thing to me is that Biden won the Democratic nomination!

Okay, so how did Biden win the Democratic nomination?

BECAUSE TRUMP AGGRESSIVELY REJECTED CENTRIST REPUBLICANS.

Here’s a rough picture of the distribution of the electorate:

In his four years as President, Trump has consistently placed party loyalty over every other interest. If you’re a moderate or far-right Republican, this is attractive to you. But if you’re a centrist Republican, this puts you in his cross-hairs a lot. A lot of centrist Republicans toughed it out. But a lot didn’t, and left the Republican party, to become independents or Democrats.

THIS SHIFTED THE MAKEUP OF THE DEMOCRATIC PARTY TO THE CENTER.

Because the Democratic Party was now more centrist, they chose a more centrist candidate. And by the median voter theorem, the more centrist candidate won the election.

Love moderately. Long love doth so.
Too swift arrives as tardy as too slow.

William Shakespeare, Romeo and Juliet

Traditional voting, approval voting, ranked-choice voting, and head-to-head voting

If there are only two candidates running, voting is pretty simple. You choose the candidate you prefer, and whoever gets the most votes wins.

If there are more than two candidates, things get more interesting. Suppose there are three candidates:

  • Capulet, the head of a large family
  • Montague, the head of a rival family
  • Mercutio, who is outside of both families

Our voter Romeo is deathly afraid of Capulet. His first choice is Mercutio. But he thinks that Montague has a better chance of winning.

Here are some ballot designs, as filled out by Romeo:

Traditional

Choose only one
☐ Capulet
☒ Montague
☐ Mercutio

Approval

Choose as many as you like
☐ Capulet
☒ Montague
☒ Mercutio

Ranked choice

Put a 1 for your favorite, a 2 for your second favorite, and so on, for as many as you like
[   ] Capulet
2 ] Montague
1 ] Mercutio

Head to head

Choose one from each pair

☐ Capulet
☒ Montague

☐ Capulet
☒ Mercutio

☐ Montague
☒ Mercutio

Who I voted for in November 2020

Someone on Facebook asked me who I voted for and dodged the question. But after thinking about it I couldn’t come up with a good reason why I shouldn’t say.

So here’s who I voted for, and some of the reasoning behind it.

Federal

  • President / Vice President of the United States – Joe Biden and Kamala Harris
    I had tons of information on this choice. Maybe too much information.
    Everyone seems to have really strong opinions about Donald Trump, either positive or negative. I don’t. I was one of the first to congratulate him when he won in 2016, but now I just think he needs to not be President anymore.
    Joe Biden is almost boring in his middle-of-the-road normalcy. I could use some of that for a change.
  • U. S. Representative, Washington Congressional District 1 – Suzan DelBene
    I looked at both candidates’ Twitter feeds and Suzan seemed like a better choice.

Washington State

  • Governor – Jay Inslee
    I watched the debate and Loren Culp said a lot of crazy anti-science nonsense so this was an easy choice.
  • Lt. Governor – Denny Heck
    This was the hardest choice for me. Both seemed like promising candidates. I watched the debate and Denny seemed like a nicer guy; Marko Liias came off as a little mean.
  • Secretary of State – Gael Tarleton because she has security experience.
  • State Treasurer – left this blank because whatever
  • State Auditor – left this blank because whatever
  • Attorney General – left this blank because whatever
  • Commissioner of Public Lands – left this blank because whatever
  • Superintendent of Public Instruction – left this blank because whatever
  • Insurance Commissioner – left this blank because whatever
  • Legislative District 48, State Representative Position 1 – Vandana Slatter
  • Legislative District 48, State Representative Position 2 – Amy Walen
  • Referendum Measure No. 90 (sex education in public schools) – Approved
  • Advisory Vote No. 32 (sales tax on grocery bags) – left this blank because I’m not going to waste my time on an advisory vote
  • Advisory Vote No. 33 (heavy equipment rentals) – left this blank because I’m not going to waste my time on an advisory vote
  • Advisory Vote No. 34 (business and occupation tax) – left this blank because I’m not going to waste my time on an advisory vote
  • Advisory Vote No. 35 (airplane tax) – left this blank because I’m not going to waste my time on an advisory vote
  • Engrossed Senate Joint Resolution No. 8212 (fund investment for long-term care) – Approved
  • State Supreme Court
    VotingForJudges.org was a very valuable resource in making these decisions
    • Justice Position No. 3 – Raquel Montoya-Lewis
    • Justice Position No. 4 – left this blank because Charles W. Johnson was running unopposed
    • Justice Position No. 6 – G. Helen Whitener
    • Justice Position No. 7 – left this blank because Debra L. Stephens was running unopposed
  • Court of Appeals, Division 1, District 1
    • Judge Position No. 5 – left this blank because David S. Mann was running unopposed
    • Judge Position No. 6 – left this blank because Bill Bowman was running unopposed
  • Superior Court
    • King Superior Court, Judge Position 13 – Andrea Robertson
    • King Superior Court, Judge Position 30 – left this blank because I couldn’t find much information on either Doug North or Carolyn Ladd
  • District Court
    • Northeast Electoral District, Judge Position No. 2 – left this blank because Michelle Gehlsen was running unopposed
    • Northeast Electoral District, Judge Position No. 4 – left this blank because Kevin Peck was running unopposed
    • Northeast Electoral District, Judge Position No. 5 – left this blank because Jill Klinge was running unopposed

King County

  • Charter Amendment No. 1 (Inquests) – Approved
  • Charter Amendment No. 2 (Affordable housing) – Approved
  • Charter Amendment No. 3 (References to citizens) – Approved
  • Charter Amendment No. 4 (Law enforcement oversight) – Approved
  • Charter Amendment No. 5 (King County sheriff) – Approved
  • Charter Amendment No. 6 (Department of Public Safety) – Approved
  • Charter Amendment No. 7 (Discrimination against family caregiver, military, veteran) – Approved
  • Proposition No. 1 (Harbor View Medical Center bonds) – Approved

President Trump tweets about the stock market

President Trump’s frequent tweets about the stock market inspired my post Some Dow Jones Industrial Average statistics, by United States President.

But he has tweeted so much since then that the list of tweets in that post has begun to overwhelm the main point of the post, which was the Dow Jones data.

So I have decided to split the tweets out into their own post. Here it is. If I missed any, please let me know in a comment below.

I grabbed the raw tweet data from http://trumptwitterarchive.com/ and added some PowerShell scripts to https://github.com/mvaneerde/blog/tree/master/dow-jones-by-president to filter the list down to the relevant tweets and format them as HTML for easy posting.

  1. 2017-02-16: Stock market hits new high with longest winning streak in decades. Great level of confidence and optimism – even before tax plan rollout!
  2. 2017-02-23: ‘S&P 500 Edges Higher After Trump Renews Jobs Pledge’ https://t.co/WtrRJVFmvU
  3. 2017-02-25: Great optimism for future of U.S. business, AND JOBS, with the DOW having an 11th straight record close. Big tax & regulation cuts coming!
  4. 2017-03-02: Since November 8th, Election Day, the Stock Market has posted $3.2 trillion in GAINS and consumer confidence is at a 15 year high. Jobs!
  5. 2017-03-14: JOBS, JOBS, JOBS! https://t.co/wAkQMKdPXA (Four Fox Business graphics, including “U. S. MARKETS FROM ELECTION DAY”)
  6. 2017-04-01: Thank you @JCLayfield — will get even better as my Administration continues to put #AmericaFirst🇺🇸 https://t.co/AQQzmt10x7 (video clip of Fox News: “CONSUMER CONFIDENCE AT 16-YR HIGH AS DOW SEES LONGEST QUARTERLY WINNING STREAK IN 10 YRS”)
  7. 2017-06-02: RT @foxandfriends: Wall Street hits record highs after Trump pulls out of Climate pact https://t.co/PDmwj13Lus
  8. 2017-06-02: RT @EricTrump: #MakeAmericaGreatAgain!!! 🇺🇸🇺🇸 https://t.co/MStWl628xe (video clip of Reuters Business: “Dow, S&P 500 and Nasdaq set record closing highs”)
  9. 2017-06-11: The #FakeNews MSM doesn’t report the great economic news since Election Day. #DOW up 16%. #NASDAQ up 19.5%. Drilling & energy sector…
  10. 2017-07-02: Stock Market at all time high, unemployment at lowest level in years (wages will start going up) and our base has never been stronger!
  11. 2017-07-03: Dow hit a new intraday all-time high! I wonder whether or not the Fake News Media will so report?
  12. 2017-07-03: RT @JacobAWohl: @realDonaldTrump When Obama was President, the #MSM LOVED talking about stock market rallies! Now they barely mention new a… (Retweet of account now suspended)
  13. 2017-07-12: Stock market hits another high with spirit and enthusiasm so positive. Jobs outlook looking very good! #MAGA🇺🇸 https://t.co/Vwxsb2vWGe
  14. 2017-07-15: Stock Market at new all-time high! Working on new trade deals that will be great for U.S. and its workers!
  15. 2017-07-15: Stock Market hit another all-time high yesterday – despite the Russian hoax story! Also, jobs numbers are starting to look very good!
  16. 2017-07-15: Just got to the #USWomensOpen in Bedminster, New Jersey. People are really happy with record high stock market – up over 17% since election!
  17. 2017-07-18: RT @FoxNews: U.S. Markets since election. https://t.co/rlWSt30GUd
  18. 2017-07-23: Thank you to @LOUDOBBS for giving the first six months of the Trump Administration an A+. S.C.,reg cutting,Stock M, jobs,border etc. = TRUE!
  19. 2017-07-29: U.S. Stock Market up almost 20% since Election!
  20. 2017-07-31: Highest Stock Market EVER, best economic numbers in years, unemployment lowest in 17 years, wages raising, border secure, S.C.: No WH chaos!
  21. 2017-08-01: Stock Market could hit all-time high (again) 22,000 today. Was 18,000 only 6 months ago on Election Day. Mainstream media seldom mentions!
  22. 2017-08-03: Business is looking better than ever with business enthusiasm at record levels. Stock Market at an all-time high. That doesn’t just happen!
  23. 2017-08-06: MAKE AMERICA GREAT AGAIN! https://t.co/g4ELhh9joH (Four Fox Business graphics, including “DOW HITS ALL-TIME HIGH”)
  24. 2017-08-07: …and West Virginia. The fact is the Fake News Russian collusion story, record Stock Market, border security, military strength, jobs…..
  25. 2017-08-16: RT @JacobAWohl: @realDonaldTrump President Trump alone has succeeded in bringing the Stock Market, Small Business Index and Consumer Comfor… (Retweet of account now suspended)
  26. 2017-09-01: Stock Market up 5 months in a row!
  27. 2017-09-16: A great deal of good things happening for our country. Jobs and Stock Market at all time highs, and I believe will be getting even better!
  28. 2017-09-29: RECORD HIGH FOR S & P 500!
  29. 2017-09-29: RT @Scavino45: Under POTUS’ @realDonaldTrump
    ☑️S&P 500 38th📈Record High
    ☑️NASDAQ 44th📈Record High
    ☑️#MakeAmericaGreatAgain🇺🇸 https://t.co…
  30. 2017-10-05: Stock Market hits an ALL-TIME high! Unemployment lowest in 16 years! Business and manufacturing enthusiasm at highest level in decades!
  31. 2017-10-05: RT @FoxBusiness: #StockAlert: U.S. markets since the election https://t.co/1kwamJuizO (Fox Business graphic “MARKETS SINCE THE ELECTION”)
  32. 2017-10-09: RT @IvankaTrump: .@realDonaldTrump stock market rally is close to becoming the greatest in 85 years https://t.co/5WlZa82Mij
  33. 2017-10-11: Stock Market has increased by 5.2 Trillion dollars since the election on November 8th, a 25% increase. Lowest unemployment in 16 years and..
  34. 2017-10-11: It would be really nice if the Fake News Media would report the virtually unprecedented Stock Market growth since the election.Need tax cuts
  35. 2017-10-16: Since Election Day on November 8, the Stock Market is up more than 25%, unemployment is at a 17 year low & companies are coming back to U.S.
  36. 2017-10-16: The U.S. has gained more than 5.2 trillion dollars in Stock Market Value since Election Day! Also, record business enthusiasm.
  37. 2017-10-17: RT @Scavino45: U.S. MARKETS FROM ELECTION DAY {Since 11/8/2016} 📈 https://t.co/HtjHrznQKJ (video clip of Fox Business: “DOW CLOSES AT RECORD HIGH”)
  38. 2017-10-17: “Dow Passes 23,000 for the First Time, Fueled by Strong Earnings”
    #Dow23K📈https://t.co/wnkrddYlb9 https://t.co/wlP0NCNcou
  39. 2017-10-17: WOW! https://t.co/eKfRktNVuy (includes an animation titled “DOW PASSES 23,000 FOR THE FIRST TIME”)
  40. 2017-10-18: “20,000📈21,000📈22,000📈 23,000📈this year…FOUR one thousand milestones this year…”
    #Dow23K #MAGA https://t.co/GQ5f2eVvEI
    (video clip of Fox Business: “DOW CLOSES ABOVE 23,000 54 DAYS SINCE DOW CLOSED ABOVE 22,000”)
  41. 2017-10-21: Stock Market hits another all time high on Friday. 5.3 trillion dollars up since Election. Fake News doesn’t spent much time on this!
  42. 2017-10-21: …2nd Amendment, Strong Military, ISIS, historic VA improvement, Supreme Court Justice, Record Stock Market, lowest unemployment in 17 yrs!
  43. 2017-10-24: Stock Market just hit another record high! Jobs looking very good.
  44. 2017-10-25: MAKE AMERICA GREAT AGAIN! https://t.co/CbEwJSQ1A3 (video clip of Fox News: “STOCK MARKET SURGE”)
  45. 2017-11-04: Unemployment is down to 4.1%, lowest in 17 years. 1.5 million new jobs created since I took office. Highest stock Market ever, up $5.4 trill
  46. 2017-11-07: Stock market hit yet another all-time record high yesterday. There is great confidence in the moves that my Administration….
  47. 2017-11-17: Great numbers on Stocks and the Economy. If we get Tax Cuts and Reform, we’ll really see some great results!
  48. 2017-11-22: Will be having meetings and working the phones from the Winter White House in Florida (Mar-a-Lago). Stock Market hit new Record High yesterday – $5.5 trillion gain since E. Many companies coming back to the U.S. Military building up and getting very strong.
  49. 2017-11-23: HAPPY THANKSGIVING, your Country is starting to do really well. Jobs coming back, highest Stock Market EVER, Military getting really strong, we will build the WALL, V.A. taking care of our Vets, great Supreme Court Justice, RECORD CUT IN REGS, lowest unemployment in 17 years….!
  50. 2017-11-27: New home sales reach a 10 year high. Stock Market has more record gains. Hopefully Republican Senators will give us the much needed Tax Cuts to keep it all going! Democrats want big Tax Increases.
  51. 2017-11-28: Dow, S&P 500 and Nasdaq all finished the day at new RECORD HIGHS! https://t.co/wJyB9d00hh
  52. 2017-11-29: RT @EricTrump: #MakeAmericaGreatAgain https://t.co/Q7AiR0buM2 (video clip of Fox Business: “DOW CLOSES AT RECORD HIGH”)
  53. 2017-11-29: Looks like another great day for the Stock Market. Consumer Confidence is at Record High. I guess somebody likes me (my policies)!
  54. 2017-11-29: Economy growing! Excluding hurricane effects, CEA estimates that real GDP growth would have been 3.9% in Q3.

    Stock market at a new high, unemployment at a low. We are winning and TAX CUTS will shift our economy into high gear! https://t.co/HrKIF72VqE
  55. 2017-11-30: Stock Market hits new Record High. Confidence and enthusiasm abound. More great numbers coming out!
  56. 2017-11-30: The Dow just broke 24,000 for the first time (another all-time Record). If the Dems had won the Presidential Election, the Market would be down 50% from these levels and Consumer Confidence, which is also at an all-time high, would be “low and glum!”
  57. 2017-11-30: Our FIFTH 1K milestone of 2017!
    #DOW24K #MAGA https://t.co/NoVt1uFp0y
  58. 2017-12-03: People who lost money when the Stock Market went down 350 points based on the False and Dishonest reporting of Brian Ross of @ABC News (he has been suspended), should consider hiring a lawyer and suing ABC for the damages this bad reporting has caused – many millions of dollars!
  59. 2017-12-04: Putting Pelosi/Schumer Liberal Puppet Jones into office in Alabama would hurt our great Republican Agenda of low on taxes, tough on crime, strong on military and borders…& so much more. Look at your 401-k’s since Election. Highest Stock Market EVER! Jobs are roaring back!
  60. 2017-12-04: With the great vote on Cutting Taxes, this could be a big day for the Stock Market – and YOU!
  61. 2017-12-10: Things are going really well for our economy, a subject the Fake News spends as little time as possible discussing! Stock Market hit another RECORD HIGH, unemployment is now at a 17 year low and companies are coming back into the USA. Really good news, and much more to come!
  62. 2017-12-12: Consumer Confidence is at an All-Time High, along with a Record High Stock Market. Unemployment is at a 17 year low. MAKE AMERICA GREAT AGAIN! Working to pass MASSIVE TAX CUTS (looking good).
  63. 2017-12-14: Republican Tax Cuts are looking very good. All are working hard. In the meantime, the Stock Market hit another record high!
  64. 2017-12-15: DOW, S&P 500 and NASDAQ close at record highs! #MAGA https://t.co/hvqwnqSGuG
  65. 2017-12-18: 70 Record Closes for the Dow so far this year! We have NEVER had 70 Dow Records in a one year period. Wow!
  66. 2017-12-19: DOW RISES 5000 POINTS ON THE YEAR FOR THE FIRST TIME EVER – MAKE AMERICA GREAT AGAIN!
  67. 2017-12-19: Stocks and the economy have a long way to go after the Tax Cut Bill is totally understood and appreciated in scope and size. Immediate expensing will have a big impact. Biggest Tax Cuts and Reform EVER passed. Enjoy, and create many beautiful JOBS!
  68. 2017-12-22: With all my Administration has done on Legislative Approvals (broke Harry Truman’s Record), Regulation Cutting, Judicial Appointments, Building Military, VA, TAX CUTS & REFORM, Record Economy/Stock Market and so much more, I am sure great credit will be given by mainstream news?
  69. 2017-12-23: The Stock Market is setting record after record and unemployment is at a 17 year low. So many things accomplished by the Trump Administration, perhaps more than any other President in first year. Sadly, will never be reported correctly by the Fake News Media!
  70. 2017-12-26: All signs are that business is looking really good for next year, only to be helped further by our Tax Cut Bill. Will be a great year for Companies and JOBS! Stock Market is poised for another year of SUCCESS!
  71. 2017-12-30: “Trump Rally: Stocks put 2017 in the record books” https://t.co/0foQGaFjMh
  72. 2018-01-03: Stock Market had another good day but, now that the Tax Cut Bill has passed, we have tremendous upward potential. Dow just short of 25,000, a number that few thought would be possible this soon into my administration. Also, unemployment went down to 4.1%. Only getting better!
  73. 2018-01-04: Dow just crashes through 25,000. Congrats! Big cuts in unnecessary regulations continuing.
  74. 2018-01-04: MAKING AMERICA GREAT AGAIN! https://t.co/iONbr1DkVk (Image: “DOW MILESTONES”)
  75. 2018-01-04: The Fake News Media barely mentions the fact that the Stock Market just hit another New Record and that business in the U.S. is booming…but the people know! Can you imagine if “O” was president and had these numbers – would be biggest story on earth! Dow now over 25,000.
  76. 2018-01-05: Dow goes from 18,589 on November 9, 2016, to 25,075 today, for a new all-time Record. Jumped 1000 points in last 5 weeks, Record fastest 1000 point move in history. This is all about the Make America Great Again agenda! Jobs, Jobs, Jobs. Six trillion dollars in value created!
  77. 2018-01-06: Brian Ross, the reporter who made a fraudulent live newscast about me that drove the Stock Market down 350 points (billions of dollars), was suspended for a month but is now back at ABC NEWS in a lower capacity. He is no longer allowed to report on Trump. Should have been fired!
  78. 2018-01-07: The Stock Market has been creating tremendous benefits for our country in the form of not only Record Setting Stock Prices, but present and future Jobs, Jobs, Jobs. Seven TRILLION dollars of value created since our big election win!
  79. 2018-01-13: Yesterday was a big day for the stock market. Jobs are coming back to America. Chrysler is coming back to the USA, from Mexico and many others will follow. Tax cut money to employees is pouring into our economy with many more companies announcing. American business is hot again!
  80. 2018-01-13: RT @LouDobbs: The stock market has gained an incredible 7.8 Trillion dollars in market value since @POTUS was elected! Looks like 4% econom…
  81. 2018-01-14: “President Trump is not getting the credit he deserves for the economy. Tax Cut bonuses to more than 2,000,000 workers. Most explosive Stock Market rally that we’ve seen in modern times. 18,000 to 26,000 from Election, and grounded in profitability and growth. All Trump, not 0…
  82. 2018-01-15: RT @EricTrump: #MakeAmericaGreatAgain 🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸 https://t.co/b81NtQGhHa (Image: “The value of all stocks has gone up $7,800,000,000,000 from the election to now”)
  83. 2018-01-20: Unprecedented success for our Country, in so many ways, since the Election. Record Stock Market, Strong on Military, Crime, Borders, & ISIS, Judicial Strength & Numbers, Lowest Unemployment for Women & ALL, Massive Tax Cuts, end of Individual Mandate – and so much more. Big 2018!
  84. 2018-02-07: In the “old days,” when good news was reported, the Stock Market would go up. Today, when good news is reported, the Stock Market goes down. Big mistake, and we have so much good (great) news about the economy!
  85. 2018-03-26: Great news! #MAGA https://t.co/mRQGRJkozC (Retweet of CNBC Now: “BREAKING: Dow posts third best one-day point gain ever https://cnb.cx/2G6ga8Y”)
  86. 2018-06-05: The U.S. has an increased economic value of more than 7 Trillion Dollars since the Election. May be the best economy in the history of our country. Record Jobs numbers. Nice!
  87. 2018-06-11: Stock Market up almost 40% since the Election, with 7 Trillion Dollars of U.S. value built throughout the economy. Lowest unemployment rate in many decades, with Black & Hispanic unemployment lowest in History, and Female unemployment lowest in 21 years. Highest confidence ever!
  88. 2018-07-14: The Stock Market hit 25,000 yesterday. Jobs are at an all time record – and that is before we fix some of the worst trade deals and conditions ever seen by any government. It is all happening!
  89. 2018-08-17: Wow! Big pushback on Governor Andrew Cuomo of New York for his really dumb statement about America’s lack of greatness. I have already MADE America Great Again, just look at the markets, jobs, military- setting records, and we will do even better. Andrew “choked” badly, mistake!
  90. 2018-08-22: Longest bull run in the history of the stock market, congratulations America!
  91. 2018-08-25: Stock Market hit all time high on Friday. Congratulations U.S.A.!
  92. 2018-08-26: Fantastic numbers on consumer spending released on Friday. Stock Market hits all time high!
  93. 2018-08-28: NASDAQ has just gone above 8000 for the first time in history!
  94. 2018-08-30: The news from the Financial Markets is even better than anticipated. For all of you that have made a fortune in the markets, or seen your 401k’s rise beyond your wildest expectations, more good news is coming!
  95. 2018-09-09: “Trump has set Economic Growth on fire. During his time in office, the economy has achieved feats most experts thought impossible. GDP is growing at a 3 percent-plus rate. The unemployment rate is near a 50 year low.” CNBC…Also, the Stock Market is up almost 50% since Election!
  96. 2018-09-20: S&P 500 HITS ALL-TIME HIGH Congratulations USA!
  97. 2018-09-21: RT @FoxBusiness: .@POTUS: “The stock market is up 55%… Your 401(k)s are up 50, 60, 70% in some cases.” https://t.co/g38SD65pMW
  98. 2018-10-03: The Stock Market just reached an All-Time High during my Administration for the 102nd Time, a presidential record, by far, for less than two years. So much potential as Trade and Military Deals are completed.
  99. 2018-10-03: Blowout numbers on New Jobs and, separately, Services. Market up!
  100. 2018-10-04: “U.S. Stocks Widen Global Lead” https://t.co/Snhv08ulcO (Image: “U.S. Stocks Widen Global Lead”)
  101. 2018-10-16: Incredible number just out, 7,036,000 job openings. Astonishing – it’s all working! Stock Market up big on tremendous potential of USA. Also, Strong Profits. We are Number One in World, by far!
  102. 2018-10-16: Stock Market up 548 points today. Also, GREAT jobs numbers!
  103. 2018-10-17: “Network News gave Zero coverage to the Big Day the Stock Market had yesterday.” @foxandfriends
  104. 2018-10-21: Best Jobs Numbers in the history of our great Country! Many other things likewise. So why wouldn’t we win the Midterms? Dems can never do even nearly as well! Think of what will happen to your now beautiful 401-k’s!
  105. 2018-10-30: The Stock Market is up massively since the Election, but is now taking a little pause – people want to see what happens with the Midterms. If you want your Stocks to go down, I strongly suggest voting Democrat. They like the Venezuela financial model, High Taxes & Open Borders!
  106. 2018-10-30: “If the Fed backs off and starts talking a little more Dovish, I think we’re going to be right back to our 2,800 to 2,900 target range that we’ve had for the S&P 500.” Scott Wren, Wells Fargo.
  107. 2018-10-31: Stock Market up more than 400 points yesterday. Today looks to be another good one. Companies earnings are great!
  108. 2018-11-12: The prospect of Presidential Harassment by the Dems is causing the Stock Market big headaches!
  109. 2019-01-04: As I have stated many times, if the Democrats take over the House or Senate, there will be disruption to the Financial Markets. We won the Senate, they won the House. Things will settle down. They only want to impeach me because they know they can’t win in 2020, too much success!
  110. 2019-01-05: “Jobs up big, plus 312,000. Record number working. Manufacturing best in 20 years (Previous administration said this could not happen). Hispanic unemployment lowest ever. Dow plus 747 (for day).” @DRUDGE_REPORT
  111. 2019-01-08: Economic numbers looking REALLY good. Can you imagine if I had long term ZERO interest rates to play with like the past administration, rather than the rapidly raised normalized rates we have today. That would have been SO EASY! Still, markets up BIG since 2016 Election!
  112. 2019-01-19: The Economy is one of the best in our history, with unemployment at a 50 year low, and the Stock Market ready to again break a record (set by us many times) – & all you heard yesterday, based on a phony story, was Impeachment. You want to see a Stock Market Crash, Impeach Trump!
  113. 2019-01-24: Great earnings coming out of Stock Market. Too bad Media doesn’t devote much time to this!
  114. 2019-01-30: Dow just broke 25,000. Tremendous news!
  115. 2019-02-01: Best January for the DOW in over 30 years. We have, by far, the strongest economy in the world!
  116. 2019-02-19: Had the opposition party (no, not the Media) won the election, the Stock Market would be down at least 10,000 points by now. We are heading up, up, up!
  117. 2019-02-25: Since my election as President the Dow Jones is up 43% and the NASDAQ Composite almost 50%. Great news for your 401(k)s as they continue to grow. We are bringing back America faster than anyone thought possible!
  118. 2019-03-02: RT @realDonaldTrump: Since my election as President the Dow Jones is up 43% and the NASDAQ Composite almost 50%. Great news for your 401(k)…
  119. 2019-03-29: Had the Fed not mistakenly raised interest rates, especially since there is very little inflation, and had they not done the ridiculously timed quantitative tightening, the 3.0% GDP, & Stock Market, would have both been much higher & World Markets would be in a better place!
  120. 2019-04-14: If the Fed had done its job properly, which it has not, the Stock Market would have been up 5000 to 10,000 additional points, and GDP would have been well over 4% instead of 3%…with almost no inflation. Quantitative tightening was a killer, should have done the exact opposite!
  121. 2019-04-23: You mean the Stock Market hit an all-time record high today and they’re actually talking impeachment!? Will I ever be given credit for anything by the Fake News Media or Radical Liberal Dems? NO COLLUSION!
  122. 2019-05-10: The average 401(k) balance has SOARED since the bottom of the market – 466%. Wow!
  123. 2019-06-07: Dow Jones has best week of the year!
  124. 2019-06-11: Good day in the Stock Market. People have no idea the tremendous potential our Country has for GROWTH – and many other things!
  125. 2019-06-15: The Trump Economy is setting records, and has a long way up to go….However, if anyone but me takes over in 2020 (I know the competition very well), there will be a Market Crash the likes of which has not been seen before! KEEP AMERICA GREAT
  126. 2019-06-19: Since Election Day 2016, Stocks up almost 50%, Stocks gained 9.2 Trillion Dollars in value, and more than 5,000,000 new jobs added to the Economy. @LouDobbs If our opponent had won, there would have been a market crash, plain and simple! @TuckerCarlson @seanhannity @IngrahamAngle
  127. 2019-06-20: S&P opens at Record High!
  128. 2019-06-20: S&P closes at Record High! https://t.co/C5nOXIQ7EJ
  129. 2019-06-22: Stock Market is on track to have the best June in over 50 years! Thank you Mr. President! @WSJ
  130. 2019-06-22: I am at Camp David working on many things, including Iran! We have a great Economy, Tariffs have been very helpful both with respect to the huge Dollars coming IN, & on helping to make good Trade Deals. The Dow heading to BEST June in 80 years! Stock Market BEST June in 50 years!
  131. 2019-06-24: ….Think of what it could have been if the Fed had gotten it right. Thousands of points higher on the Dow, and GDP in the 4’s or even 5’s. Now they stick, like a stubborn child, when we need rates cuts, & easing, to make up for what other countries are doing against us. Blew it!
  132. 2019-06-25: Stock Market is heading for one of the best months (June) in the history of our Country. Thank you Mr. President!
  133. 2019-06-26: RT @realDonaldTrump: Stock Market is heading for one of the best months (June) in the history of our Country. Thank you Mr. President!
  134. 2019-06-28: The Stock Market went up massively from the day after I won the Election, all the way up to the day that I took office, because of the enthusiasm for the fact that I was going to be President. That big Stock Market increase must be credited to me. If Hillary won – a Big Crash!
  135. 2019-06-30: “Stocks Cap Best First Half Since 1997” @WSJ Our Country is doing great!
  136. 2019-07-03: S&P 500 hits new record high. Up 19% for the year. Congratulations!
  137. 2019-07-03: Today’s Stock Market is the highest in the history of our great Country! This is the 104th time since the Election of 2016 that we have reached a NEW HIGH. Congratulations USA!
  138. 2019-07-05: ….As well as we are doing from the day after the great Election, when the Market shot right up, it could have been even better – massive additional wealth would have been created, & used very well. Our most difficult problem is not our competitors, it is the Federal Reserve!
  139. 2019-07-07: RT @WhiteHouse: The 3 major U.S. stock indexes all closed with record highs Wednesday!
    https://t.co/UMvQTNn2r7
  140. 2019-07-11: Dow just hit 27,000 for first time EVER!
  141. 2019-07-12: The DOW, S&P 500, and NASDAQ all close the week at a new record high! https://t.co/wPJiM8n7m2
  142. 2019-07-15: ….Detention facilities are not Concentration Camps! America has never been stronger than it is now – rebuilt Military, highest Stock Market EVER, lowest unemployment and more people working than ever before. Keep America Great!
  143. 2019-07-17: Big Rally tonight in Greenville, North Carolina. Lots of great things to tell you about, including the fact that our Economy is the best it has ever been. Best Employment & Stock Market Numbers EVER. I’ll talk also about people who love, and hate, our Country (mostly love)! 7:PM
  144. 2019-07-23: Newest Poll: Only 11% in favor of starting ridiculous impeachment hearings. Well, let’s see: We have the Best Economy in History, the Best Employment Numbers in History, Most People Working in History, Highest Stock Market in History, Biggest Tax and Regulation Cuts in History,..
  145. 2019-07-25: President Trump’s Approval Rating on Economy is at 52%, a 4 point jump. Fox Poll @foxandfriends Shouldn’t this be at 100%? Best stock market, economy and unemployment numbers ever! Most people working within U.S. ever! Low interest rates, very low inflation! Country doing great!
  146. 2019-07-31: What the Market wanted to hear from Jay Powell and the Federal Reserve was that this was the beginning of a lengthy and aggressive rate-cutting cycle which would keep pace with China, The European Union and other countries around the world….
  147. 2019-08-01: The people on the stage tonight, and last, were not those that will either Make America Great Again or Keep America Great! Our Country now is breaking records in almost every category, from Stock Market to Military to Unemployment. We have prosperity & success like never before..
  148. 2019-08-06: Thank you @JimCramer @CNBC! https://t.co/DW7HDA0WEK (Clip of CNBC: “U.S. FUTURES: S&P 500, DOW JONES, NASDAQ”)
  149. 2019-08-23: The Dow is down 573 points perhaps on the news that Representative Seth Moulton, whoever that may be, has dropped out of the 2020 Presidential Race!
  150. 2019-08-25: My Stock Market gains must be judged from the day after the Election, November 9, 2016, where the Market went up big after the win, and because of the win. Had my opponent won, CRASH!
  151. 2019-08-30: If the Fed would cut, we would have one of the biggest Stock Market increases in a long time. Badly run and weak companies are smartly blaming these small Tariffs instead of themselves for bad management…and who can really blame them for doing that? Excuses!
  152. 2019-09-01: RT @realDonaldTrump: If the Fed would cut, we would have one of the biggest Stock Market increases in a long time. Badly run and weak compa…
  153. 2019-09-02: Since my election, many trillions of dollars of worth has been created for our Country, and the Stock Market is up over 50%. If you followed the advice of the Failing New York Times columnist, Paul Krugman, you’d be doing VERY poorly – you’d be angry and hurt. He never got it!
  154. 2019-09-05: RT @MadMoneyOnCNBC: .@JimCramer: Thursday’s positive economic data may get some commentators to ease up on the desire to endlessly call for… (Link to CNBC article “Positive economic data triggered a ‘sea change’ in the stocks that are working on Wall Street,” Jim Cramer says)
  155. 2019-09-26: If they actually did this the markets would crash. Do you think it was luck that got us to the best Stock Market and Economy in our history. It wasn’t! https://t.co/V0WGVWEWTN
  156. 2019-10-01: You cannot judge my Stock Market performance since the Inauguration, which was very good, but only from the day after the big Election Win, which was spectacular due to the euphoria of getting Obama/Biden OUT, & getting Trump/Pence IN. WentI up BIG between Nov. 9 & Inauguration!
  157. 2019-10-02: All of this impeachment nonsense, which is going nowhere, is driving the Stock Market, and your 401K’s, down. But that is exactly what the Democrats want to do. They are willing to hurt the Country, with only the 2020 Election in mind!
  158. 2019-10-16: Our record Economy would CRASH, just like in 1929, if any of those clowns became President!
  159. 2019-10-28: The S&P just hit an ALL TIME HIGH. This is a big win for jobs, 401-K’s, and, frankly, EVERYONE! Our Country is doing great. Even killed long sought ISIS murderer, Al-Baghdadi. We are stronger than ever before, with GREAT upward potential. Enjoy!
  160. 2019-10-31: The Impeachment Hoax is hurting our Stock Market. The Do Nothing Democrats don’t care!
  161. 2019-11-01: Stock Market up BIG! Record highs for S&P 500 and NASDAQ. Enjoy!
  162. 2019-11-04: Stock Market hits RECORD HIGH. Spend your money well!
  163. 2019-11-04: All-Time High for Stock Market and all the Fake News wants to talk about is the Impeachment Hoax!
  164. 2019-11-04: RT @TrumpWarRoom: “So today, we just hit the highest number in the history of the stock market. … That’s for everybody. Your 401(k)’s, ho…
  165. 2019-11-05: RT @Varneyco: STU: “Throw in strong #profits, #tradedeals, and more #economicgrowth still to come, and you can see why we have record highs…
  166. 2019-11-05: RT @realDonaldTrump: All-Time High for Stock Market and all the Fake News wants to talk about is the Impeachment Hoax!
  167. 2019-11-06: Stock Markets (all three) hit another ALL TIME & HISTORIC HIGH yesterday! You are sooo lucky to have me as your President (just kidding!). Spend your money well!
  168. 2019-11-06: RT @realDonaldTrump: Stock Markets (all three) hit another ALL TIME & HISTORIC HIGH yesterday! You are sooo lucky to have me as your Presid…
  169. 2019-11-07: Stock Market up big today. A New Record. Enjoy!
  170. 2019-11-14: Hit New Stock Market record again yesterday, the 20th time this year, with GREAT potential for the future. USA is where the action is. Companies and jobs are coming back like never before!
  171. 2019-11-15: Another Record Stock Market, 21 times this year, despite an ongoing, & totally unfounded, Witch Hunt, & a Democrat Party that would love to see a nice, big, juicy recession. In actuality, the potential for the United States is unlimited. We will power through the Do Nothing Dems!
  172. 2019-11-15: Stock Market up big. New and Historic Record. Job, jobs, jobs!
  173. 2019-11-16: Dow hits 28,000 – FIRST TIME EVER, HIGHEST EVER! Gee, Pelosi & Schitt have a good idea, “lets Impeach the President.” If something like that ever happened, it would lead to the biggest FALL in Market History. It’s called a Depression, not a Recession! So much for 401-K’s & Jobs!
  174. 2019-11-17: Thanks Eric! https://t.co/6Ai7bqto3P (Reply to Eric Trump: “The DOW closed at over 28,000 for the first time in HISTORY. All three US stock indexes closed today at record highs!!! Good job dad! @realDonaldTrump #MAGA 🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸”)
  175. 2019-11-18: GREAT NEWS! #MAGA #KAG https://t.co/GXDE2IlGGu (Clip of CNBC: “DOW, NASDAQ RECORD CLOSE”)
  176. 2019-11-19: NASDAQ UP 27% THIS YEAR ALONE!
  177. 2019-11-25: Another new Stock Market Record. Enjoy!
  178. 2019-11-25: “DOW, NASDAQ, S&P 500 CLOSE AT RECORD HIGHS” https://t.co/q8IuuuUGjb
  179. 2019-11-25: RT @realDonaldTrump: “DOW, NASDAQ, S&P 500 CLOSE AT RECORD HIGHS” https://t.co/q8IuuuUGjb
  180. 2019-11-27: New Stock Market Record today, AGAIN. Congratulations USA!
  181. 2019-11-30: RT @WattersWorld: . @realDonaldTrump won’t get the nomination, Trump won’t win, Stock Market will tank, Russia Collusion…These are the st…
  182. 2019-12-02: U.S. Markets are up as much as 21% since the announcement of Tariffs on 3/1/2018 – and the U.S. is taking in massive amounts of money (and giving some to our farmers, who have been targeted by China)!
  183. 2019-12-05: Nancy Pelosi just had a nervous fit. She hates that we will soon have 182 great new judges and sooo much more. Stock Market and employment records. She says she “prays for the President.” I don’t believe her, not even close. Help the homeless in your district Nancy. USMCA?
  184. 2019-12-06: Stock Markets Up Record Numbers. For this year alone, Dow up 18.65%, S&P up 24.36%, Nasdaq Composite up 29.17%. “It’s the economy, stupid.”
  185. 2019-12-06: Without the horror show that is the Radical Left, Do Nothing Democrats, the Stock Markets and Economy would be even better, if that is possible, and the Border would be closed to the evil of Drugs, Gangs and all other problems! #2020
  186. 2019-12-06: JOBS, JOBS, JOBS! https://t.co/QCtWgld2RW (Clip of CNBC: “FUTURES JUMP ON BLOWOUT NOVEMBER JOBS REPORT”)
  187. 2019-12-08: RT @WarRoom2020: OH MY JOBS! – U.S. Economy Adds 266,000 Jobs in November #WarRoomImpeachment https://t.co/gDrgkwm8Zl (warroom.org article: “OH MY JOBS! – U.S. Economy Adds 266,000 Jobs in November. U.S. jobs numbers soared again in November, providing markets another boost…”)
  188. 2019-12-09: The best Economy ever! https://t.co/Ql8f16uGXD (Reply to CNBC tweet with a list of economic assets that added value, including among others the S&P 500)
  189. 2019-12-13: Record Stock Market & Jobs!
  190. 2019-12-16: New Stock Market high! I will never get bored of telling you that – and we will never get tired of winning!
  191. 2019-12-16: https://t.co/YLmzkgro4d (foxbusiness.com article: “Dow gains 10,000th point since Trump’s election”)
  192. 2019-12-17: The Stock Market hit another Record High yesterday, number 133 in less than three years as your all time favorite President, and the Radical Left, Do Nothing Democrats, want to impeach me. Don’t worry, I have done nothing wrong. Actually, they have!
  193. 2019-12-20: Economy is GREAT, Big Stock Market uptick today. Best ranking in 20 years admits CNN! https://t.co/fhee5zYqvB
  194. 2019-12-20: Broke all time Stock Market Record again today. 135 times since my 2016 Election Win. Thank you!
  195. 2019-12-23: NASDAQ UP 72.2% SINCE OUR GREAT 2016 ELECTION VICTORY! DOW UP 55.8%. The best is yet to come!
  196. 2019-12-23: STOCK MARKET CLOSES AT ALL-TIME HIGH! What a great time for the Radical Left, Do Nothing Democrats to Impeach your favorite President, especially since he has not done anything wrong!
  197. 2019-12-24: “Stocks kick off Christmas week at All-Time Record Highs.” @foxandfriends
  198. 2019-12-24: https://t.co/jSSY9yvh2P (Clip of Fox News: “STOCKS RECORD RISE”)
  199. 2019-12-26: “Trump stock market rally is far outpacing past US presidents” https://t.co/lFegwHMLGr
  200. 2019-12-26: “Nasdaq Hits 9,000 for First Time Ever” https://t.co/7gyomV32Zy
  201. 2019-12-26: RT @AZachParkinson: “The S&P 500 has returned more than 50% since Trump was elected, more than double the 23% average market return of pres…
  202. 2019-12-26: RT @TrumpWarRoom: Americans’ retirement savings are WINNING BIG under President Trump!

    The Nasdaq just hit 9,000 for the first time IN HIS…
  203. 2019-12-27: “Trump Stock Market rally is far outpacing past U.S. presidents” @CNBC With new trade deals, and more, THE BEST IS YET TO COME!
  204. 2019-12-27: “Dow closes at another All-Time High!” @cvpayne @FoxBusiness
  205. 2019-12-27: RT @ROHLL5: I Blame Trump! 🤣
    .@realDonaldTrump https://t.co/b2CwtPd4fz
    (Image: “I Blame Trump! Stock Market Up! Jobs Up; Wages are up!”)
  206. 2020-01-01: RT @Scavino45: https://t.co/LZADtVwk1R (Image: “THE STOCK MARKET KEEPS BREAKING RECORDS”)
  207. 2020-01-09: STOCK MARKET AT ALL-TIME HIGH! HOW ARE YOUR 401K’S DOING? 70%, 80%, 90% up? Only 50% up! What are you doing wrong?
  208. 2020-01-10: “11,000 points gained in the Dow in the 3 years since the Election of President Trump. Today it may hit 29,000. That has NEVER happened before in that time frame. That has added 12.8 Trillion Dollars to the VALUE of American Business.” @Varneyco @FoxNews The best is yet to come!
  209. 2020-01-10: RT @realDonaldTrump: “11,000 points gained in the Dow in the 3 years since the Election of President Trump. Today it may hit 29,000. That h…
  210. 2020-01-17: Heading to Florida for big Republican Party event. New Stock Market Record. Jobs in USA at all-time high!
  211. 2020-01-18: RT @realDonaldTrump: “Trade Deals Drive Stocks To Record Highs.” @FoxNews
  212. 2020-01-18: If you listened to the flawed advice of @paulkrugman at the @nytimes, a newspaper that was going broke until I came along, you would have entirely missed the RECORD BREAKING Stock Market (and other) numbers produced since Election Day, 2016. Sorry, those are the FACTS…..
  213. 2020-01-24: RT @SenJohnBarrasso: Since @realDonaldTrump took office, we’ve added 7 million new jobs, consumer confidence & the stock market are at all-…
  214. 2020-02-04: Market up big today on very good economic news. JOBS, JOBS, JOBS!
  215. 2020-02-11: New Stock Market RECORD. Congratulations, spend your money wisely. KEEP AMERICA GREAT!!!!!
  216. 2020-02-11: When Jerome Powell started his testimony today, the Dow was up 125, & heading higher. As he spoke it drifted steadily downward, as usual, and is now at -15. Germany & other countries get paid to borrow money. We are more prime, but Fed Rate is too high, Dollar tough on exports.
  217. 2020-02-12: GREAT NEWS! #KAG2020🇺🇸 https://t.co/QA6Bpl4ETv (Clip of CNBC: “RECORD CLOSE FOR STOCKS”)
  218. 2020-02-15: RT @GOPChairwoman: .@realDonaldTrump’s policies have kicked America’s economic engine into high gear:

    Last month marked the 23rd consecut…
  219. 2020-02-19: Highest Stock Market In History, By Far!
  220. 2020-02-24: The Coronavirus is very much under control in the USA. We are in contact with everyone and all relevant countries. CDC & World Health have been working hard and very smart. Stock Market starting to look very good to me!
  221. 2020-03-02: https://t.co/DFl9I722nr (Clip of Hannity: “STOCKS SURGE, BREAK SINGLE-DAY TRADING RECORDS”)
  222. 2020-03-13: RT @SaraCarterDC: Trump Declares National Emergency Over Coronavirus, Solutions Spur Wall Street Rally

    Incredible what can be done w/ rig…
  223. 2020-03-14: BIGGEST STOCK MARKET RISE IN HISTORY YESTERDAY!
  224. 2020-04-10: This week, in only 4 days, we had the biggest Stock Market increase since 1974. We have a great chance for the really big bounce when the Invisible Enemy is gone!
  225. 2020-05-26: Stock Market up BIG, DOW crosses 25,000. S&P 500 over 3000. States should open up ASAP. The Transition to Greatness has started, ahead of schedule. There will be ups and downs, but next year will be one of the best ever!
  226. 2020-05-26: RT @realDonaldTrump: Stock Market up BIG, DOW crosses 25,000. S&P 500 over 3000. States should open up ASAP. The Transition to Greatness ha…
  227. 2020-06-03: I feel more and more confident that our economy is in the early stages of coming back very strong. Not everyone agrees with me, but I have little doubt. Watch for September, October, November. Next year will be one of the best ever, and look at the Stock Market NOW!
  228. 2020-06-08: Big day for Stock Market. Smart money, and the World, know that we are heading in the right direction. Jobs coming back FAST. Next year will be our greatest ever!
  229. 2020-06-09: RT @GOP: The Transition to Greatness has BEGUN as the stock market continues to SURGE!
    https://t.co/ci53LzN6BM
  230. 2020-06-09: NASDAQ HITS ALL-TIME HIGH!
  231. 2020-06-10: NASDAQ HITS ALL-TIME HIGH. Tremendous progress being made, way ahead of schedule. USA!
  232. 2020-06-16: Wow! May retail sales show biggest one-month increase of ALL TIME, up 17.7%. Far bigger than projected. Looks like a BIG DAY FOR THE STOCK MARKET, AND JOBS!
  233. 2020-06-30: RT @EricTrump: Amazing Quarter for the Markets!!! The DOW has the best quarter in 33 years (up 17.77%). Likewise the NASDAQ is up 30.63% in…
  234. 2020-07-01: WOW. Record Growth in 2nd Quarter! Under Corrupt Joe Biden and his MASSIVE Tax and Regulation increases, Markets, and your 401k’s, will PLUNGE! Expect a Record 2021!
  235. 2020-07-03: NASDAQ HAD ITS 23RD RECORD CLOSE OF THE YEAR. OTHER EXCHANGES ARE FOLLOWING CLOSELY BEHIND. TREMENDOUS POTENTIAL REMAINING. BIG MONTHS UPCOMING. NEXT YEAR, DEPENDING ON AN ELECTION WIN, WILL BE ONE OF THE BEST EVER! @LouDobbs
  236. 2020-07-06: If you want your 401k’s and Stocks, which are getting close to an all time high (NASDAQ is already there), to disintegrate and disappear, vote for the Radical Left Do Nothing Democrats and Corrupt Joe Biden. Massive Tax Hikes – They will make you very poor, FAST!
  237. 2020-07-06: NASDAQ HITS ALL TIME HIGH!
  238. 2020-07-08: Economy and Jobs are growing MUCH faster than anyone (except me!) expected. Job growth is biggest in history. China Virus Mortality Rate is among the LOWEST of any country. Shaping up for a good third quarter, and a great next year! NASDAQ at new record high, 401k’s way up!!!!
  239. 2020-07-13: The Lamestream Media is not talking about what is happening with the Stock Market and JOBS. Both are doing GREAT! The Radical Left will destroy the USA. Be careful what you wish for!
  240. 2020-07-21: Strong Stock Market Numbers. You want to see them dive? Vote for the Radical Left with their BIG Tax Hikes!
  241. 2020-08-01: “Biden to raise taxes by 3 Trillion Dollars.” Actually, it will be much more than that, and much of it on nonsense. Markets and your 401k’s will CRASH. Jobs will disappear!
  242. 2020-08-03: RECORD HIGH NASDAQ! It would all come crashing down, including your Jobs, Stocks, and 401k’s, if Sleepy Joe ever became President. China and others would own us!!!
  243. 2020-08-08: Sleepy Joe Biden just agreed with the Radical Left Democrats to raise Taxes by Three Trillion Dollars. Everyone will pay – Will kill your Stocks, 401k’s, and the ECONOMY. BIG CRASH! #MAGA
  244. 2020-08-11: Big Stock Market Numbers!
  245. 2020-08-17: NEW RECORD FOR NASDAQ!
  246. 2020-08-18: ….My Administration and I built the greatest economy in history, of any country, turned it off, saved millions of lives, and now am building an even greater economy than it was before. Jobs are flowing, NASDAQ is already at a record high, the rest to follow. Sit back & watch!
  247. 2020-08-24: Joe Biden has said he would lock down the Country again. That’s crazy! We’re having record job growth and a booming stock market, but Joe would end it all and close it all down. Ridiculous!
  248. 2020-08-26: Just In: Chinese State Media and Leaders of CHINA want Biden to win “the U.S. Election”. If this happened (which it won’t), China would own our Country, and our Record Setting Stock Markets would literally CRASH!
  249. 2020-09-02: The Dow Jones Industrial just closed above 29,000! You are so lucky to have me as your President😉With Joe Hiden’ it would crash😧
  250. 2020-09-03: Do you notice that any time Fake News Suppression Polls are put out, like @FoxNews, the Stock Market goes DOWN. We are going to WIN!
  251. 2020-09-07: RT @TVNewsHQ: “Look at the Dow go!” Fox Business host reacts as 1.37 million jobs are created according to new figures out this morning, wi…
  252. 2020-09-14: Great, Just Out! 51% Approval Rating in Rasmussen Poll. 95% in Republican Party. Stock Market up BIG today. Will I ever be given credit for the Markets and Economy? Next year will be BIG!
  253. 2020-09-25: RT @seanmdav: BREAKING: Explosive new FBI texts uncovered by DOJ show that FBI agents were so horrified by the bureau’s actions to take dow…
  254. 2020-10-05: “I’m voting for Donald Trump. My father is a Union Worker and his 401K has tripled under President Trump.” USA Voter. @foxandfriends Thank you, and remember that the Stock Market is getting ready to break its all time high. NEXT YEAR WILL BE THE BEST EVER. VOTE, VOTE, VOTE!!!!!
  255. 2020-10-05: STOCK MARKET HIGHS. VOTE!
  256. 2020-10-05: 401(K). VOTE!
  257. 2020-10-05: STOCK MARKET UP BIG, 466 Points! 28,149. Great News for America. Jobs, Jobs, Jobs!
  258. 2020-10-06: The Fake News Media refuses to discuss how good the Economy and Stock Market, including JOBS under the Trump Administration, are doing. We will soon be in RECORD TERRITORY. All they want to discuss is COVID 19, where they won’t say it, but we beat the Dems all day long, also!!!
  259. 2020-10-06: …@senatemajldr Mitch McConnell not to delay, but to instead focus full time on approving my outstanding nominee to the United States Supreme Court, Amy Coney Barrett. Our Economy is doing very well. The Stock Market is at record levels, JOBS and unemployment…
  260. 2020-10-12: Remember, Stock Market at an All Time High, and going up. 401k’s at RECORD. With Sleepy Joe comes Tax Increases, jobs losses and DEPRESSION like never seen before!!! VOTE!!!
  261. 2020-10-12: Stock Market Up Big. Do I get no credit for this? Never even mentioned by the Fake News. A New Record for Stocks and Jobs Growth. Remember, “it’s the Economy Stupid”. VOTE!!!
  262. 2020-10-12: RT @realDonaldTrump: Remember, Stock Market at an All Time High, and going up. 401k’s at RECORD. With Sleepy Joe comes Tax Increases, jobs…
  263. 2020-10-12: STOCK MARKET UP BIG!
  264. 2020-10-12: The Economy is about ready to go through the roof. Stock Market ready to break ALL-TIME RECORD. 401k’s incredible. New Jobs Record. Remember all of this when you VOTE. Sleepy Joe wants to quadruple your Taxes. Depression!!! Don’t let it happen! #MAGA
  265. 2020-10-12: STOCK MARKET UP ANOTHER 300 POINTS – GREATEST LEADING INDICATOR OF THEM ALL!!! DON’T RUIN IT WITH SLEEPY JOE!!!
  266. 2020-10-20: “Stock Markets will hit new highs if President Trump wins. Tremendous growth like never before. If Biden wins, it’s strangulation. Not good.” @SteveKalayjian @Varneyco
  267. 2020-10-21: Your 401k’s will crash with Biden. Massive Biden Tax and Regulation increases will destroy all that you have built! Additionally, 180 Million People will lose their Private Healthcare Plans.
  268. 2020-11-09: STOCK MARKET UP BIG, VACCINE COMING SOON. REPORT 90% EFFECTIVE. SUCH GREAT NEWS!
  269. 2020-11-16: STOCK MARKET GETTING VERY CLOSE TO 30,000 ON NEW VACCINE NEWS. 95% EFFECTIVE!
  270. 2020-11-25: RT @TeamTrump: The Great American Comeback is ONLY possible with President @realDonaldTrump! (CNBC: “BREAKING: Dow Jones Industrial Average hits 30,000 for the first time”)
  271. 2020-11-25: RT @RepDLesko: The Dow Jones average surpassed 30,000 for the first time ever! Thanks to President @realDonaldTrump’s pro-growth, pro-Ameri…
  272. 2020-11-25: RT @RepAndyBiggsAZ: The U.S. economy has enjoyed incredible momentum since President @realDonaldTrump took office thanks to his commitment… (CNBC: “Dow rallies 500 points to surpass 30,000 for the first time”)
  273. 2020-12-04: STOCK MARKET REACHES NEW ALL-TIME HIGH!
  274. 2020-12-08: NASDAQ and S&P close at all-time highs. Congratulations!
  275. 2020-12-09: STOCK MARKETS AT NEW ALL TIME HIGHS!!!
  276. 2020-12-17: All-time Stock Market high. The Vaccine and the Vaccine rollout are getting the best of reviews. Moving along really well. Get those “shots” everyone! Also, stimulus talks looking very good.
  277. 2020-12-31: Finished off the year with the highest Stock Market in history. Setting records with your 401k’s, just like I said you would. Congratulations to all!

Last updated 2021-01-08

Some Dow Jones Industrial Average statistics, by United States President

The previous President of the United States, Donald Trump, had tweeted several times about the stock market: see President Trump tweets about the stock market for a list.

Since I look at data for a living I thought I would take a look at how the stock market has actually performed historically, broken up by President.

I had some trouble initially deciding what benchmark to use to measure stock market performance. I finally settled on the Dow Jones Industrial Average, even though it is not a particularly good indicator, because:

  • President Trump cited it directly.
  • The historical data goes back quite a long time, which increases the number of presidents I can compare.

I downloaded the DJIA data from https://stooq.com/q/d/?s=^dji and I hand-copied the US presidents from https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Presidents_of_the_United_States.

Then I wrote a small PowerShell script (~150 lines) which ran through both lists and generated the output below.

I omitted Presidents whose terms did not overlap the Dow Jones data I had, which started during Grover Cleveland’s second term, and continued on to the day before I ran the script.

I calculated the annualized return using the following formula:
return = ((last price) / (first price))1 / (time in years)

Return Record highs MTTRH*
Grover Cleveland
1896-05-27 to 1897-03-04
2% 8 35
William McKinley
1897-03-04 to 1901-09-13
11% 70 24
Theodore Roosevelt
1901-09-16 to 1909-03-04
2% 36 76
William Taft
1909-03-04 to 1913-03-04
-0% 0 N/A
Woodrow Wilson
1913-03-04 to 1921-03-04
3% 66 44
Warren Harding
1921-03-04 to 1923-08-02
7% 0 N/A
Calvin Coolidge
1923-08-02 to 1929-03-04
25% 171 12
Herbert Hoover
1929-03-04 to 1933-03-03
-36% 25 58
Franklin Roosevelt
1933-03-15 to 1945-04-12
9% 0 N/A
Harry Truman
1945-04-12 to 1953-01-20
8% 0 N/A
Dwight Eisenhower
1953-01-20 to 1961-01-20
10% 142 21
John Kennedy
1961-01-20 to 1963-11-22
4% 30 35
Lyndon Johnson
1963-11-22 to 1969-01-20
5% 112 17
Richard Nixon
1969-01-20 to 1974-08-09
-3% 16 127
Gerald Ford
1974-08-09 to 1977-01-20
9% 0 N/A
Jimmy Carter
1977-01-20 to 1981-01-20
-0% 0 N/A
Ronald Reagan
1981-01-20 to 1989-01-20
11% 153 19
George H. W. Bush
1989-01-20 to 1993-01-20
10% 56 26
Bill Clinton
1993-01-20 to 2001-01-19
16% 266 11
George W. Bush
2001-01-22 to 2009-01-20
-4% 56 52
Barack Obama
2009-01-20 to 2017-01-20
12% 121 24
Donald Trump
2017-01-20 to 2021-01-20
12% 126 12
Joe Biden
2021-01-20 to 2021-06-18
19% 20 8
Overall
1896-05-27 to 2021-06-18
6% 1474 31

* Mean time to record high

I will mostly leave the interpretation of this summary to you, dear reader. Nevertheless, I will hazard some observations:

  • The Dow Jones generally rises, at an average rate of 6% a year (though it is bursty.)
  • Record highs are quite common, happening on average once a month (though this is also bursty.)
  • Under President Trump the Dow Jones had an annual return of 12%. Compare to Calvin Coolidge’s 25%, Herbert Hoover’s -36%, and the overall 6%.
  • Under President Trump reached a record high about every 12 days. Compare to Calvin Coolidge’s and Bill Clinton’s about-every-11-or-12-days, Franklin Roosevelt’s and Harry Truman’s (combined) zero highs over 20 years, and the overall about every 31 days.
  • Under President Biden, so far, the annualized return is 19% and we are seeing a record high about every eight days.

EDIT: uploaded script and a snapshot of the source data to GitHub https://github.com/mvaneerde/blog/tree/master/dow-jones-by-president

(sporadic edits to refresh data)

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